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Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?8%▼2.7 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?40%▼5.5 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?92%▲2.0 Israel closes its airspace by June 30?28%▲1.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?18%▼1.0 Israel closes its airspace by June 15?22%▲2.0 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?7%▲1.2 Israel closes its airspace by June 10?13%▲6.1 Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9?2%▼1.9 can you just balenciaga it? Before 202848%▲2.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?28%▼1.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?5%▲0.0 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?45%▼1.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?52%▲0.7 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?33%▲0.0 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?3%▼0.2 Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?8%▼2.7 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?40%▼5.5 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?92%▲2.0 Israel closes its airspace by June 30?28%▲1.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?18%▼1.0 Israel closes its airspace by June 15?22%▲2.0 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?7%▲1.2 Israel closes its airspace by June 10?13%▲6.1 Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9?2%▼1.9 can you just balenciaga it? Before 202848%▲2.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?28%▼1.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?5%▲0.0 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?45%▼1.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?52%▲0.7 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?33%▲0.0 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?3%▼0.2

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Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?8%▼2.7 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?40%▼5.5 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?92%▲2.0 Israel closes its airspace by June 30?28%▲1.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?18%▼1.0 Israel closes its airspace by June 15?22%▲2.0 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?7%▲1.2 Israel closes its airspace by June 10?13%▲6.1 Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9?2%▼1.9 can you just balenciaga it? Before 202848%▲2.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?28%▼1.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?5%▲0.0 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?45%▼1.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?52%▲0.7 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?33%▲0.0 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?3%▼0.2 Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?8%▼2.7 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?40%▼5.5 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?92%▲2.0 Israel closes its airspace by June 30?28%▲1.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?18%▼1.0 Israel closes its airspace by June 15?22%▲2.0 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?7%▲1.2 Israel closes its airspace by June 10?13%▲6.1 Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9?2%▼1.9 can you just balenciaga it? Before 202848%▲2.0 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?28%▼1.0 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?5%▲0.0 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?45%▼1.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?52%▲0.7 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?33%▲0.0 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?3%▼0.2

Event · resolves around 2026-06-07

Roberto — election · Jun 2026

3 related contracts across Polymarket · $6.6M traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Market	Venue	Category	Prob	Δ 24h	Vol 24h	Liq	Trust	Signal
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Polymarket	Geopolitics	8%	-2.7 pts	$4.1M	94	78	Real move
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Polymarket	Geopolitics	92%	+2.0 pts	$2.3M	92	79	Real move
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Polymarket	Geopolitics	0%	+0.1 pts	$246.2K	87	81	Worth watching

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.