Event · resolves around 2026-10-08
Nobel Prize — awards · Oct 2026
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English? | Manifold | 25% | -2.1 pts | 31 | Developing |
| Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks? | Manifold | 10% | +1.4 pts | 1 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.