ProbCastOdds Reliability

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Monday, September 28, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+8.096%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?

Moved down 5.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.12%Confirmed move
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?

Moved up 1.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.85%Confirmed move
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 4.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.530%Confirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-0.526%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?

Moved up 43.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+43.550%Likely noise
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?

Moved up 38.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+38.051%Likely noise
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?

Moved down 29.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-29.013%Likely noise

Settled (24 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.