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Wednesday, September 23, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 17.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 31.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 25.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 4.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 24.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 33.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (31 in 24h)
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 38% or lower before Dec 1st 2026Manifoldyes
- Will bluelinfish1 reach Celestial before bluelinfish reaches Master?Manifoldno
- Will the US–Denmark–Greenland security agreement be signed before October 15, 2026?Manifoldyes
- Both Opus and Sol released this week?Manifoldyes
- Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Polymarketyes
- 🇪🇺 Will the EU remove Alisher Usmanov from its Russia sanctions list by September 22?Manifoldyes
- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.