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Saturday, August 29, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 14.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 6.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 14.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Little 24h change — what little moved looks like thin-market noise.
Settled (53 in 24h)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on August 28?Polymarketno
- Ethereum price at Aug 29, 2026 at 12am EDT?Kalshino
- Will the S&P 500 close above 7,700 on Friday?Manifoldyes
- Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1?Polymarketyes
- Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 10 and 15 million views on day 1?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.