ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Saturday, August 29, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.051%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.047%Confirmed move
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved up 2.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.940%Confirmed move
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Moved down 1.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.32%Confirmed move
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+3.563%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?

Moved up 63.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+63.7100%Likely noise
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026?

Moved up 35.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+35.0100%Likely noise
Will Tadej Pogacar hold the red jersey for the entire 2026 Vuelta a Espana?

Moved down 84.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-84.71%Likely noise

Settled (24 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.