ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Wednesday, August 5, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.063%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.014%Confirmed move
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.017%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.055%Confirmed move
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.090%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Moved down 12.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-12.550%Likely noise
Will Bitcoin be higher by close on Friday?

Moved down 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-30.053%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Aug 6, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+12.043%Likely noise

Settled (41 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.