ProbCastOdds Reliability
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?82%▲42.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?48%▲27.0Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?84%▲58.5Bitcoin Up or Down on September 19?93%▲21.0Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?43%▼8.1Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 19?14%▲6.4Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?5%▼49.4Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?89%▼3.4Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?7%▼13.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?67%▲3.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?14%▲8.3US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?80%▲5.0Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?7%▼3.0Ethereum Up or Down on September 19?99%▲4.8Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?22%▲3.2Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?96%▲7.1

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Wednesday, August 5, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.063%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.014%Confirmed move
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.017%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+5.055%Confirmed move
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.090%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Moved down 12.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-12.550%Likely noise
Will Bitcoin be higher by close on Friday?

Moved down 30.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-30.053%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Aug 6, 2026 at 12am EDT?

Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+12.043%Likely noise

Settled (41 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.