ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Saturday, August 1, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Moved up 23.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+23.568%Confirmed move
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.020%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.023%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.011%Confirmed move
Iran leadership change by August 31?

Moved down 1.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.84%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

Moved up 30.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+30.496%Likely noise
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

Moved up 37.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+37.097%Likely noise
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

Moved up 20.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+20.087%Likely noise

Settled (565 in 24h)

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