ProbCastOdds Reliability
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?19%▼11.0Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?59%▼12.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?89%▲9.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 15?87%▼6.7Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?81%▲0.1Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 15?13%▼21.5Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?12%▼9.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?45%▼7.0Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?42%▼9.5Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?90%▲69.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?74%▲2.0Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?27%▲9.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 15?2%▼5.4Opus 5.2 released in September?19%▲12.4Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?63%▼3.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?33%▲5.5

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Saturday, August 1, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Moved up 23.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+23.568%Confirmed move
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.020%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.023%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.011%Confirmed move
Iran leadership change by August 31?

Moved down 1.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.84%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

Moved up 30.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+30.496%Likely noise
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

Moved up 37.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+37.097%Likely noise
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

Moved up 20.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+20.087%Likely noise

Settled (565 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.