Prediction Markets Daily Read — Friday, July 31, 2026 | ProbCast

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Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?86%▲78.1 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?13%▼77.6 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?3%▼71.7 Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?0%▼30.4 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?2%▼27.3 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?92%▲18.5 Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?70%▲14.2 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?28%▲6.0 Will I delete my Manifold account by October? (Again)98%▲55.8 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?22%▼32.0 Anthony Fauci deceased before January 1st 202819%▼30.9 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▲6.0 Will a frontier model exfiltrate its own weights by EoY 2028?20%▼21.0 Will I become a moderator?9%▼41.4 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?8%▲0.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?1%▼5.3

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?86%▲78.1 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?13%▼77.6 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?3%▼71.7 Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?0%▼30.4 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?2%▼27.3 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?92%▲18.5 Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?70%▲14.2 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?28%▲6.0 Will I delete my Manifold account by October? (Again)98%▲55.8 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?22%▼32.0 Anthony Fauci deceased before January 1st 202819%▼30.9 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▲6.0 Will a frontier model exfiltrate its own weights by EoY 2028?20%▼21.0 Will I become a moderator?9%▼41.4 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?8%▲0.0 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?1%▼5.3

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Prediction Markets Daily Read — Friday, July 31, 2026 | ProbCast