ProbCastOdds Reliability
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?32%▲8.0Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?77%▲12.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?76%▲19.3Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 14?34%▲24.0Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?51%▼17.7Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?97%▲17.2Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?28%▲7.2Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH again more than 267.8431 USDC Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTC35%▲11.4Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned?30%▼9.3Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?3%▲0.9Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?62%▲6.5Will Trump have a national address this week and call certain aspects of the AI race an imminent threat to humanity?6%▼18.4Will Eliezer approve of Yuddish?32%▼23.4Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?9%▼2.0Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 14?86%▲15.4Will AI solve another Millennium Prize Problem (besides Navier–Stokes) before September 15, 2027?66%▲45.7

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Friday, July 31, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.010%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.060%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.039%Confirmed move
Iran leadership change by August 31?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.06%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Moved up 20.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+20.578%Likely noise
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-12.080%Likely noise
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-8.052%Likely noise

Settled (634 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.