ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Friday, July 31, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+1.010%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+7.060%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.039%Confirmed move
Iran leadership change by August 31?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.06%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Ethereum price at Aug 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Moved up 20.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+20.578%Likely noise
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

Moved down 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-12.080%Likely noise
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-8.052%Likely noise

Settled (634 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Prediction Markets Daily Read — Friday, July 31, 2026 | ProbCast