ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

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Thursday, July 30, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+4.067%Confirmed move
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

Moved down 3.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.30%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

-0.22%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?

Moved down 70.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-70.94%Likely noise
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Moved up 63.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+63.574%Likely noise
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Moved down 63.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-63.627%Likely noise

Settled (449 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.