Odds Reliability Brief · archived edition · live feed →
Monday, September 21, 2026
The day’s odds moves, sorted by whether the trading behind them can be believed — captured Sep 21, 11:59 PM ET.
Reliable moves
Repricings backed by real volume and healthy books.
Moved up 24.7 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Sep 21, 11:59 PM ET
Moved up 19.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Sep 21, 11:59 PM ET
Likely noise
Big swings without the trading to back them — easy to over-read.
Moved down 33.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Polymarket · Likely Noise · data as of Sep 21, 11:59 PM ET
Moved up 9.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Kalshi · Likely Noise · data as of Sep 21, 11:59 PM ET
How the market called it
A recently settled market and what it was pricing 24 hours before the deadline.
Methodology: verdicts restate ProbCast’s existing Movement, Liquidity and Trust scores — a move is “reliable” when the repricing is backed by real volume, tight spreads and fresh prices, and “likely noise” when it isn’t. No new judgment is applied on this page. Full rules on the methodology page.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.