Odds Reliability Brief · archived edition · live feed →
Sunday, August 2, 2026
The day’s odds moves, sorted by whether the trading behind them can be believed — captured Aug 2, 11:53 PM ET.
Reliable moves
Repricings backed by real volume and healthy books.
Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Aug 2, 11:53 PM ET
Moved up 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Aug 2, 11:53 PM ET
Moved up 0.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Polymarket · Reliable Move · data as of Aug 2, 11:53 PM ET
Likely noise
Big swings without the trading to back them — easy to over-read.
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Manifold · Likely Noise · data as of Aug 2, 11:53 PM ET
Moved up 12.7 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Manifold · Likely Noise · data as of Aug 2, 11:53 PM ET
Moved up 25.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Manifold · Likely Noise · data as of Aug 2, 11:53 PM ET
Methodology: verdicts restate ProbCast’s existing Movement, Liquidity and Trust scores — a move is “reliable” when the repricing is backed by real volume, tight spreads and fresh prices, and “likely noise” when it isn’t. No new judgment is applied on this page. Full rules on the methodology page.
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