ProbCast.coOdds Reliability

2026 Midterms · 22 days to Nov 3

Who the markets favor

Toss-up0Lean D5Lean R3Safe D13Safe R14Books disagree0
Hover a state to compare Polymarket and Kalshi. Click it for the full breakdown.
Alaska: Democrats 73%Alabama: Republicans 97%Arkansas: Republicans 94%AZ: no Senate race in 2026CA: no Senate race in 2026Colorado: Democrats 98%CT: no Senate race in 2026DC: no Senate race in 2026Delaware: Democrats 98%Florida (special): Republicans 91%Georgia: Democrats 96%HI: no Senate race in 2026Iowa: Republicans 59%Idaho: Republicans 95%Illinois: Democrats 98%IN: no Senate race in 2026Kansas: Republicans 63%Kentucky: Republicans 97%Louisiana: Republicans 94%Massachusetts: Democrats 98%MD: no Senate race in 2026Maine: Democrats 58%Michigan: Democrats 69%Minnesota: Democrats 87%MO: no Senate race in 2026Mississippi: Republicans 93%Montana: Republicans 92%North Carolina: Democrats 96%ND: no Senate race in 2026Nebraska: Republicans 73%New Hampshire: Democrats 89%New Jersey: Democrats 97%New Mexico: Democrats 97%NV: no Senate race in 2026NY: no Senate race in 2026Ohio (special): Democrats 61%Oklahoma: Republicans 97%Oregon: Democrats 98%PA: no Senate race in 2026Rhode Island: Democrats 98%South Carolina: Republicans 85%South Dakota: Republicans 93%Tennessee: Republicans 93%Texas: Democrats 63%UT: no Senate race in 2026Virginia: Democrats 98%VT: no Senate race in 2026WA: no Senate race in 2026WI: no Senate race in 2026West Virginia: Republicans 98%Wyoming: Republicans 98%AKD 73%ALR 97%ARR 94%AZCACOD 98%FLR 91%GAD 96%IAR 59%IDR 95%ILD 98%INKSR 63%KYR 97%LAR 94%MED 58%MID 69%MND 87%MOMSR 93%MTR 92%NCD 96%NDNER 73%NMD 97%NVNYOHD 61%OKR 97%ORD 98%PASCR 85%SDR 93%TNR 93%TXD 63%UTVAD 98%WAWIWVR 98%WYR 98%VTVT: no Senate race in 2026NH 89%New Hampshire: Democrats 89%MA 98%Massachusetts: Democrats 98%RI 98%Rhode Island: Democrats 98%CTCT: no Senate race in 2026NJ 97%New Jersey: Democrats 97%DE 98%Delaware: Democrats 98%MDMD: no Senate race in 2026DCDC: no Senate race in 2026

Senate

Books agree
62%Democrats
38%Republicans

D Poly 64% · Kalshi 61%

House

Books agree
90%Democrats
10%Republicans

D Poly 91% · Kalshi 90%

Senate races

35
How to read this map +Polymarket and Kalshi on the same contract; amber dots mark races where the two disagree.
How is each state colored?
By the side both venues favor, averaging Polymarket and Kalshi on the same contract. Solid means safe (80%+), lighter means lean (55–80%), faint means a toss-up (under 55%).
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds for the same race?
They are separate markets with separate traders. Small gaps are normal. When the two are 4 or more points apart the state gets an amber dot: usually one side is thinly traded, so check each market's volume before quoting either number.
Is the Polymarket US price the same as Polymarket?
No. Polymarket US (polymarket.us) is a separate book and can sit several points away. This page uses the main Polymarket book.

Play-money venues are left off. Trust scores and order-book depth for each race are on its market page; methodology. ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.