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Currently 98% YES, up 4.0 pts over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 48/100).
Moved up 4.0 pts over 24h — worth watching; not confirmed either way.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Folarin Balogun participates as a player in The United States vs. Belgium match during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any appearance as a player taking the field as a part of the starting lineup or as a substitute will qualify. No other appearance will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
FAST_MOVEMoving fastMagnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: limited history.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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