As of Oct 27, 2026, 7:11 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 91.1% (up from 85.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $40.8K traded in the past 24 hours, $18.2K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 3.3 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 2.7 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$18.2K
Bid-ask spread
3.3 pts
24h volume
$40.8K
Total volume
$165.2K
It would take roughly $7.5K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
83
Trades
200
over 7h
Largest order
$1K
$18.2K traded across these 200 trades (last 7h).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
The probability rose 6.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (85.0% → 91.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 27, 7:22 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.