Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
104.9 mana
Total volume
324.5 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the EIA weekly U.S. average regular gasoline price fall below $3.75/gallon before November 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 7:12 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 9.0% (down from 11.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 104.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
9.0%
−2.4 percentage points
over 24 hours11.4% → 9.0%
Resolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.4 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
34%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
7
Trades
13
over 58 days
Largest order
108 mana
320.7 mana traded across these 13 trades (last 58 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$320.7 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the U.S. Energy Information Administration's "Weekly U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the U.S. Energy Information Administration's "Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" series publishes ANY weekly value, dated on or before 2026-10-26, that is strictly below $3.750 per gallon. Resolves NO otherwise. Oracle (sole source): https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W Only the national weekly figure in that series counts. AAA, GasBuddy, state averages, and daily prices do NOT count. Revisions published by EIA are honored. Context: the Aug 24, 2026 reading was $4.085. The last 8 weekly readings ranged $3.777-$4.096. Prices typically fall through September and October as summer driving ends and cheaper winter-blend fuel arrives, and the Trump administration has said its August 28 Venezuela oil arrangement will push pump prices down. Whether that carries the national average a full ~34 cents below $3.75 before November is the question.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 27, 7:20 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
18Low
Where the price path tends to go next540 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~28h
PredictabilityStable
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-2.424H-2.47D-2.4
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