Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio e…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 27, 4:46 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
What's happening
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting94%
- Stable consensus3%
- Thin-liquidity spike2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$20.5K
Liquidity
$29K
Total volume
$252.5K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.6 pts
- Best bid
- 98.9%
- Best ask
- 99.5%
- 7-day range
- 99.2% – 99.4%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026