Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 2?
As of Sep 30, 2026, 10:41 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.4% (down from 1.3% 24 hours earlier). It had $39.1K traded in the past 24 hours, $43.6K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.1 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 2, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 10:46 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Oct 10.1%
- By Oct 2 (this market)0.4%
The market prices the Oct 1 and Oct 2 deadlines almost identically.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
What's happening
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting88%
- Stable consensus5%
- Illiquid / quiet3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$39.1K
Liquidity
$43.6K
Total volume
$47.8K
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.1 pts
- Best bid
- 0.4%
- Best ask
- 0.5%
- 7-day range
- 0.4% – 1.5%
- Resolves
- Oct 2, 2026