Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 30?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 5:23 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 98.5% (up from 97.8% 24 hours earlier). It had $32.3K traded in the past 24 hours, $27.1K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.2 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 29, 5:34 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Sep 2999.6%
- By Sep 30 (this market)98.5%
Extending the deadline from Sep 29 to Sep 30 removes about 1.1 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Book runs out before absorbing a 5-pt move (fragile depth)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting93%
- Thin-liquidity spike3%
- Stable consensus3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$32.3K
Liquidity
$27.1K
Total volume
$38.3K
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.2 pts
- Best bid
- 98.4%
- Best ask
- 98.6%
- 7-day range
- 97.8% – 98.8%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026