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Home/Crypto/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 24?
PolymarketCryptoUpdated 6m ago

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 24?

Last traded probability
100.0%
+4.7 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
100.0%
Event deadline
August 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Venue status
open

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 24? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 100.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 24, 2026 at 2:01 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 24, 2026 at 2:07 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
6m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

25/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity82

Depth of the order book and volume

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto

Market data

24h volume

$95.7K

Liquidity

$169.8K

Total volume

$95.7K

Category
Crypto
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
99.9%
Best ask
100.0%
7-day range
95.3% – 100.0%
Resolves
Aug 24, 2026

Trust breakdown

25/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+58
  • Price steadiness+10
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score25 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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