Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$47.5K
Bid-ask spread
0.1 pts
24h volume
$47.4K
Total volume
$58K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 29?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 3:57 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 99.4% (up from 98.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $47.4K traded in the past 24 hours, $47.5K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.1 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
99.4%
+0.9 percentage points
over 24 hours98.5% → 99.4%
Resolving soon
Thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
32%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
74
Trades
195
over 5 days
Largest order
$7.9K
$57.5K traded across these 195 trades (last 5 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$57.5K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Resolution source: binance.com
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (binance.com)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 28, 4:09 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Resolving soon
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next1363 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting97%
- Thin-liquidity spike1%
- Stable consensus1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H+0.16H+0.924H+0.97D+0.9
Related markets
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?
3%YESTrust 71
Polymarket$146.1K 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?
1%YESTrust 75
Polymarket$155K 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?
1%YESTrust 53
Polymarket$44.9K 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?
17%YESTrust 50
Polymarket$65.7K 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?
67%YESTrust 35
Polymarket$67K 24h
Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
8%YESTrust 50
Kalshi$178.8 24h