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Home/Crypto/Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 12?
PolymarketCryptoUpdated 1m ago

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 12?

Market probability
99.9%
Little changed over 24 hours
1 day until the event deadline
Deadline: August 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$48.4K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 11, 4:33 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Market data

24h volume

$47.8K

Liquidity

$23.1K

Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.124H+0.17D+0.1
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

44/ 100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

Settlement-stage — price is pinned near resolution. Read it as a settlement signal, not a fresh forecast.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement2

Magnitude of recent probability change

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Book runs out before absorbing a 5-pt move (fragile depth)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
26Low
Where the price path tends to go next394 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting93%
  • Stable consensus4%
  • Thin-liquidity spike2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~28h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Total volume

$48.4K

Category
Crypto
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
99.8%
Best ask
99.9%
7-day range
99.8% – 100.0%
Resolves
Aug 12, 2026
Liquidity75

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

44/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+54
  • Price steadiness+29
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score44 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 11?

100%YESTrust 69
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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