Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?
Source: Polymarket price history
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 77.0%
- Event deadline
- November 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- open
- Resolution source
- fec.gov
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 77.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- November 4, 2026 at 9:26 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 4, 2026 at 9:26 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- November 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- just now
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution source: fec.gov