PolymarketPoliticsUpdated just now

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?

Last traded probability
77.0%
+34.5 pts
past 24h
Price historyPolymarket

Source: Polymarket price history

Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
77.0%
Event deadline
November 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Venue status
open
Resolution source
fec.gov

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 77.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
November 4, 2026 at 9:26 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
November 4, 2026 at 9:26 AM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
November 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
just now

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Resolution source: fec.gov

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