Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$59.3K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$21.6K
Total volume
$88.6K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?
As of Oct 17, 2026, 6:18 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 4.5% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $21.6K traded in the past 24 hours, $59.3K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
4.5%
Little changed over 24 hours
Thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
57%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
61
Trades
200
over 84 days
Largest order
$434.5
$2.9K traded across these 200 trades (last 84 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$2.9K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution source: fec.gov
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
- Confirmation at the resolution source (fec.gov)
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 6:26 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±14 pts.
Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
44Medium
Where the price path tends to go next1703 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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