ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?38%▲0.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?71%▲13.4Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?71%▼8.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?27%▼16.5Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?45%▼22.8US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?7%▼7.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?14%▲0.5Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?26%▼6.0Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?79%▲31.6US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?24%▼9.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?79%▼2.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?67%▲7.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?33%▼7.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?21%▼1.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?23%▼5.0Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?12%▲2.6
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?38%▲0.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?71%▲13.4Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?71%▼8.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?27%▼16.5Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?45%▼22.8US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?7%▼7.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?14%▲0.5Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?26%▼6.0Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?79%▲31.6US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?24%▼9.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?79%▼2.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?67%▲7.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?33%▼7.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?21%▼1.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?23%▼5.0Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?12%▲2.6
Home/Macro / Fed/Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-12?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 9m ago

Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-12?

Last traded probability
0.1%
-77.5 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
0.1%
Event deadline
August 12, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET
Venue status
open
Resolution source
conmebollibertadores.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-08-12? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 0.1%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 12, 2026 at 8:33 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 12, 2026 at 8:42 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 12, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution

What this market actually measures

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 12, 2026 If SE Palmeiras wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 12, 2026 If SE Palmeiras wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Resolution source: conmebollibertadores.com

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

19/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity88

Depth of the order book and volume

Related markets

Will Magic Kingdom have a fireworks show every night from August 12 to September 10?”

50%YESTrust 24
ManifoldṀ10 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 12, 2026 at 9pm EDT?

19%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$1.2K 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 12, 2026 at 9pm EDT?

56%YESTrust 0
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
Data updated
9m ago

Market data

24h volume

$499K

Liquidity

$219.7K

Total volume

$499.1K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.0 pts
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
0.1%
7-day range
0.1% – 93.0%
Resolves
Aug 12, 2026
Resolution
conmebollibertadores.com

Trust breakdown

19/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+62
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score19 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Kalshi$444.6 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 12, 2026 at 9pm EDT?

20%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$274.6 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 12, 2026 at 9pm EDT?

3%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$211 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 12, 2026 at 9pm EDT?

1%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$210 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]