As of Oct 30, 2026, 10:24 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 13.5% (up from 9.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $738.2K traded in the past 24 hours, $747.9K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Deep, easy-to-trade market — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread, trading concentrated in a small number of accounts.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (4 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$747.9K
Bid-ask spread
1.0 pts
24h volume
$738.2K
Total volume
$756.5K
It would take roughly $142.1K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
54
Trades
200
over 4h
Largest order
$3.4K
$6.4K traded across these 200 trades (last 4h).
One-trader move: 54% of the recent trading came from a single account. That is about who traded, not how deep the market is.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
The probability rose 4.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (9.5% → 13.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 30, 10:31 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±18 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.