ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?37%▼14.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?63%▼11.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?23%▲9.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?56%▼11.7US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?9%▼10.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?25%▼2.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?45%▼18.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?2%▼4.5Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?50%▲4.5Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?98%▲2.8US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?69%▼4.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?10%▼4.0Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" earns more than $170M in domestic gross earnings during their second weekend?3%▼19.8US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?83%▼2.0US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?89%▼1.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?70%▼3.0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?37%▼14.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?63%▼11.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?23%▲9.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?56%▼11.7US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?9%▼10.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?25%▼2.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?45%▼18.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?2%▼4.5Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?50%▲4.5Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?98%▲2.8US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?69%▼4.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?10%▼4.0Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" earns more than $170M in domestic gross earnings during their second weekend?3%▼19.8US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?83%▼2.0US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?89%▼1.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?70%▼3.0
Home/Macro / Fed/Will Real Madrid win on 2026-08-08?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 10m ago

Will Real Madrid win on 2026-08-08?

Last traded probability
86.0%
+15.5 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
86.0%
Event deadline
August 8, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
Venue status
open
Resolution source
flashscore.com

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Real Madrid win on 2026-08-08? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 86.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 8, 2026 at 2:20 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 8, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 8, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution

What this market actually measures

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 8, 2026 If Real Madrid wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 8, 2026 If Real Madrid wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market will settle based on the final score of the match, regardless of format (e.g. two halves totaling 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or four periods totaling 120 minutes). The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Resolution source: flashscore.com

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

12/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity78

Depth of the order book and volume

Related markets

Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

4%YESTrust 46
Polymarket$84.9K 24h

Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

2%YESTrust 43
Polymarket$22.8K 24h

Will Messi arrive argentina today?

99%YESTrust 24
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
Data updated
10m ago

Market data

24h volume

$140.9K

Liquidity

$58K

Total volume

$148.3K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
2.0 pts
Best bid
85.0%
Best ask
87.0%
7-day range
69.5% – 96.5%
Resolves
Aug 8, 2026
Resolution
flashscore.com

Trust breakdown

12/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+55
  • Price steadiness+0
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
  • Big move, weak support-10
Trust score12 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Manifold
Ṁ45.8 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

94%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$11.5K 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

2%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$10.9K 24h

Ethereum price at Aug 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

2%YESTrust 0
Kalshi$4.6K 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]