Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 1:11 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 0.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $36K traded in the past 24 hours and $1.3M of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 7, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 1:19 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting89%
- Stable consensus5%
- Thin-liquidity spike2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$36K
Liquidity
$1.3M
Total volume
$10.4M
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.0 pts
- Best bid
- 0.1%
- Best ask
- 0.1%
- 7-day range
- 0.1% – 0.1%
- Resolves
- Nov 7, 2028