Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 29.5% (down from 31.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $44.6K traded in the past 24 hours, $666K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 2 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Missouri enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Missouri enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment. Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify. The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings. This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment. The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Missouri; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 1:21 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.
- Directional drift sustained across 1h / 6h / 24h windows
- Executed flow sell-heavy (94%)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting87%
- Stable consensus5%
- Thin-liquidity spike4%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$44.6K
Liquidity
$666K
Total volume
$53.5K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 29.0%
- Best ask
- 30.0%
- 7-day range
- 29.5% – 31.5%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2027