PolymarketPoliticsDevelopingUpdated 4m ago

Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

As of Oct 24, 2026, 1:22 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 7.6% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $25.7K traded in the past 24 hours, $7.9K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.6 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
7.6%
Little changed over 24 hours

Thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.

Price historyPolymarket

Source: Polymarket price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

ThinTight spread

Order-book liquidity

$7.9K

Bid-ask spread

1.6 pts

24h volume

$25.7K

Total volume

$61.7K

Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
47%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

58

Trades

200

over 21 days

Largest order

$496.8

$3.4K traded across these 200 trades (last 21 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$3.4K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote. Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally. This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).

Resolution source: senate.gov

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

  • Confirmation at the resolution source (senate.gov)

    The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 24, 1:26 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
21Low
Where the price path tends to go next1573 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting98%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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