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Home/Politics/Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
PolymarketPoliticsUpdated 4m ago

Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Last traded probability
1.8%
+0.9 pts
past 24h
Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
1.8%
Event deadline
August 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Venue status
open

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 1.8%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
August 11, 2026 at 4:32 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
August 11, 2026 at 4:36 PM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
August 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
4m ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

46/ 100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: past deadline.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Liquidity80

Depth of the order book and volume

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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Market data

24h volume

$69.3K

Liquidity

$70.1K

Total volume

$111.2K

Category
Politics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.5 pts
Best bid
1.5%
Best ask
2.0%
7-day range
0.9% – 2.1%
Resolves
Aug 10, 2026

Trust breakdown

46/100 · Watch

Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: past deadline.

  • Liquidity anchor+56
  • Price steadiness+23
  • Past deadline-25
  • Limited history-8
Trust score46 / 100
How these scores work →
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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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