PolymarketAI / TechDevelopingUpdated 9m ago

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?

As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:24 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 3.1% (up from 2.6% 24 hours earlier). It had $75.4K traded in the past 24 hours, $466.2K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 0.4 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.

Market probability
3.1%
+0.5 percentage points
over 24 hours2.6% → 3.1%

Deep, easy-to-trade market, with broad trading across many accounts.

Price historyPolymarket

Source: Polymarket price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Strong

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

DeepTight spread

Order-book liquidity

$466.2K

Bid-ask spread

0.4 pts

24h volume

$75.4K

Total volume

$194.9K

It would take roughly $22.1K of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.

Lots of money on the book and a tight spread — a single ordinary order can't move this price much.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Broad participation
27%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

100

Trades

200

over 9 days

Largest order

$908.3

$5.4K traded across these 200 trades (last 9 days).

Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one bettor.

Recent trade activity$5.4K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Indiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Indiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the certified results, regardless of when the measure is certified or takes effect. Passage by one or both chambers, or a Governor's announced intent to sign, is not enactment. Executive orders, agency orders, and other measures which are not statutory or constitutional do not qualify as enactment regardless of legal force. A provision removed by line-item veto is not enacted unless the veto is overridden as to that item. The operative text of the measure at enactment controls; provisions amended out before enactment do not qualify. The moratorium provision must be mandatory on its face. A statute that merely authorizes a state agency or the Governor to impose a moratorium at their discretion does not qualify. A statute that directs suspension of approvals or interconnection upon a specified condition qualifies only if the condition is objectively determinable and is not deferred to be determined by the implementing agency's findings, certifications, or completion of its own proceedings. This market resolves based on the date of enactment, not the effective date. Resolution will not be affected by failure to implement a law, judicial invalidation, repeal, or expiry that follows a relevant enactment, or an effective date that comes after the date of enactment. The primary resolution source will be official information from the state government of Indiana; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±10 pts.

Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven

A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.

  • Tight spread on a liquid, calm market

The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
57Medium
Where the price path tends to go next255 observed
  • Stable consensus94%
  • Trend continuation3%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting3%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~42h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$75.4K

Liquidity

$466.2K

Total volume

$194.9K

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.4 pts
Best bid
2.9%
Best ask
3.3%
7-day range
2.6% – 3.1%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.524H+0.57D+0.5

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