Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?
Source: Polymarket price history
This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Final market price
- 100.0%
- Event deadline
- November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 100.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 100.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Market data as of
- October 28, 2026 at 6:57 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 28, 2026 at 9:31 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 3h ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.