Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
124.9 mana
Total volume
233.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the Netherlands appear on the initial Eurovision 2027 participant list?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 7:12 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 19.5% (down from 95.9% 24 hours earlier). It had 124.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
19.5%
−76.4 percentage points
over 24 hours95.9% → 19.5%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (48.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
22%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
14
over 64 days
Largest order
12.1 mana
77.1 mana traded across these 14 trades (last 64 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$77.1 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the Netherlands or Dutch broadcaster AVROTROS appears on the EBU's first official full participant list for the 2027 Eurovision Song Contest. Otherwise resolves NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the Netherlands or Dutch broadcaster AVROTROS appears on the EBU's first official full participant list for the 2027 Eurovision Song Contest. Otherwise resolves NO. Later additions or withdrawals do not change the resolution. Primary source: the European Broadcasting Union. The market closes November 30, ahead of the customary December announcement. Related markets Will Canada delay or cancel its September 8 retaliatory tariffs? Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone at its September 2026 event? Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2026 PS–Place Publique presidential primary? Will Chang'e-7 launch by August 31, 2027? Will the Nevada Hawk Fire exceed 20,000 acres before reaching 90% containment? Will King Harald resume official duties by September 30, 2026? Will Brent crude settle at or above $100 on September 30, 2026? Will Alibaba close at or above HK$123 on September 30, 2026? Which Cincinnati finalist will go furthest at the 2026 US Open?
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 76.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (95.9% → 19.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 30, 2026 at 5:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 27, 7:21 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 48.5 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next540 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-48.524H-76.47D-76.4
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