Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 September 28-October 4?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 11:57 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 11.7% (down from 27.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $72.8K traded in the past 24 hours, $27.9K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 2.1 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 3 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 3 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Low" pr…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 15.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (27.0% → 11.6%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 3, 12:00 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±24 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 13.6 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 66 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Trend continuation43%
- Stable consensus23%
- Choppy / mean-reverting21%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$72.8K
Liquidity
$27.9K
Total volume
$88.7K
- Category
- Crypto
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 2.1 pts
- Best bid
- 10.6%
- Best ask
- 12.7%
- 7-day range
- 11.7% – 27.7%
- Resolves
- Oct 5, 2026