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Currently 0% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 70/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
Only Polymarket has this matched event in the current feed
This market will resolve to the nation with the highest FIFA World Ranking that fails to advance from the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The FIFA World Ranking in effect at the time of this market's creation will be used. “Eliminated in the group phase” means the nation does not advance to the knockout stage (i.e., does not finish first or second in its group and is not among the eight best third-placed teams that advance). If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the group stage results cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
EXPIRING_SOONResolving soonMagnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: expiring soon.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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