Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
As of Oct 5, 2026, 1:22 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 15.1% (down from 20.1% 24 hours earlier). It had $30.3K traded in the past 24 hours, $116.2K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.2 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread. The probability moved another 1 point in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 1 point in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 5.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (20.1% → 15.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesApril 18, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 5, 1:30 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 5.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 85 participants (broad, not a single order)
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Thin-liquidity spike66%
- Choppy / mean-reverting25%
- Trend continuation4%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$30.3K
Liquidity
$116.2K
Total volume
$111.3K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.2 pts
- Best bid
- 14.5%
- Best ask
- 15.7%
- 7-day range
- 15.1% – 20.1%
- Resolves
- Apr 18, 2027