Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 1:17 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 21.5% (down from 40.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $96.6K traded in the past 24 hours, $94.6K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as strong.
Confirmed repricing; the market is settling at the new level.
The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
StrongThe pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (18.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 18.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (40.0% → 21.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 3, 1:23 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Dec 3112.5%
- By Dec 31 (this market)21.5%
Extending the deadline from Dec 31 to Dec 31 adds about 9.0 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 18.5 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 48 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Trend continuation64%
- Stable consensus17%
- Choppy / mean-reverting10%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$96.6K
Liquidity
$94.6K
Total volume
$116.9K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 1.0 pts
- Best bid
- 21.0%
- Best ask
- 22.0%
- 7-day range
- 21.5% – 40.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2028