US x China tariff agreement by September 30?
This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Final market price
- 100.0%
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 100.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
US x China tariff agreement by September 30? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 27, 2026 at 3:21 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 27, 2026 at 4:45 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 1h ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and the listed date 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and the listed date 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market data
24h volume
$26.1K
Liquidity
$0
Total volume
$47.3K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 0.1 pts
- Best bid
- 99.9%
- Best ask
- 100.0%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026