US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?90%▼1.0Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?38%▼16.0US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?52%▼2.5Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?30%▼15.0Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?46%▲11.0Guillotines have a come back by 203021%▼28.3Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?28%▲4.0Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 21-27?17%▲7.6US Average Gas Price Is $4.4800 or more on September 28 2026?15%▼68.4Will one AI lab pull ahead before 2028?26%▼26.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?28%▲1.5Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?9%▼6.7US Average Gas Price Is $4.4900 or more on September 29 2026?26%▼34.1Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?16%▲3.7Will I find a wife by the end of 2027?23%▲2.0Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?8%▲1.4
PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 1h ago

US x China tariff agreement by September 30?

Final price
100.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.

Final market price
100.0%
Event deadline
September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline
100.0%
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

US x China tariff agreement by September 30? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.

Market data as of
September 27, 2026 at 3:21 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 27, 2026 at 4:45 AM ET
Source
Polymarket
Event deadline
September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
1h ago

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and the listed date 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and the listed date 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Market data

24h volume

$26.1K

Liquidity

$0

Total volume

$47.3K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
0.1 pts
Best bid
99.9%
Best ask
100.0%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026

Related markets