Spain snap election called in 2026?
As of Oct 5, 2026, 2:51 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 79.5% (down from 83.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $34.1K traded in the past 24 hours, $5K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 9.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume, an unusually wide spread. The probability moved another 10 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume, an unusually wide spread.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 10 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prio…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Spain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal dissolution of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of at least one house of the Spanish Parliament prior to their scheduled election at the end of their parliamentary term. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 4.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (83.5% → 79.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 5, 2:53 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Oct 3172.5%
- By Dec 31 (this market)79.5%
Extending the deadline from Oct 31 to Dec 31 adds about 7.0 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±33 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 10.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Thin-liquidity spike65%
- Choppy / mean-reverting25%
- Trend continuation6%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$34.1K
Liquidity
$5K
Total volume
$97.2K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 9.0 pts
- Best bid
- 75.0%
- Best ask
- 84.0%
- 7-day range
- 79.5% – 89.5%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026