As of Oct 14, 2026, 4:01 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 36.5% (up from 32.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $62.7K traded in the past 24 hours, $24.5K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 3.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 2.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$24.5K
Bid-ask spread
3.0 pts
24h volume
$62.7K
Total volume
$87.2K
It would take roughly $59.1 of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
81
Trades
200
over 44 days
Largest order
$3.8K
$24.2K traded across these 200 trades (last 44 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute re…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities. The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
The probability rose 4.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (32.5% → 36.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 14, 4:08 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.
A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.