Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
ThinTight spread
Order-book liquidity
$25K
Bid-ask spread
1.3 pts
24h volume
$32.9K
Total volume
$115.6K
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 5:57 PM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 3.8% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $32.9K traded in the past 24 hours, $25K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.3 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
3.8%
Little changed over 24 hours
Thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyPolymarket
Source: Polymarket price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
20%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
114
Trades
199
over 55 days
Largest order
$993.2
$7.3K traded across these 199 trades (last 55 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$7.3K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 6:05 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Oct 31 (this market)3.8%
- By Dec 3120.0%
Extending the deadline from Oct 31 to Dec 31 adds about 16.3 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±14 pts.
Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
46Medium
Where the price path tends to go next1377 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting97%
- Stable consensus1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~19h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.124H-0.17D-0.1
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