Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by September 30?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Polymarket)
This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 1.5%.
- Final market price
- 1.5%
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 4:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by September 30? The final Polymarket price was 1.5%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 1.5%.
- Market data as of
- October 3, 2026 at 12:57 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 4:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 18d ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.