As of Oct 24, 2026, 10:31 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 37.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had $27.2K traded in the past 24 hours and $36.5 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$36.5
Bid-ask spread
0.0 pts
24h volume
$27.2K
Total volume
$27.2K
It would take roughly $121.8 of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
4
Trades
4
over 3h
Largest order
$295.9
$543.4 traded across these 4 trades (last 3h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
In the upcoming EFL Championship game between Derby County FC and Bolton Wanderers FC, scheduled for November 6, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Derby County FC vs. Bolton Wanderers FC match originally scheduled for November 6, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are ex…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
In the upcoming EFL Championship game between Derby County FC and Bolton Wanderers FC, scheduled for November 6, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Derby County FC vs. Bolton Wanderers FC match originally scheduled for November 6, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 24, 10:36 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.