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Currently 0% YES, down 20.4 pts over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a noisy move on weak liquidity — treat with caution (Trust 27/100).
Moved down 20.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Only Polymarket has this matched event in the current feed
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jun 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jun 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jun 16 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
STALE_PRICEStale priceFAST_MOVEMoving fastLOW_TRUST_MOVEBig move, weak backingMagnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: stale price.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by compound question.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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