Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
300.7 mana
Total volume
300.7 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Zoe & Matt Breakup before Nov 1
As of Oct 14, 2026, 2:31 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 12.3% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 300.7 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
12.3%
Little changed over 24 hours
Stale price
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
67%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
11
over 2 min
Largest order
200 mana
300.3 mana traded across these 11 trades (last 2 min).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$300.3 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 14, 2:36 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Stale price
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
- Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
28Low
Where the price path tends to go next742 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Related markets
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 100
Polymarket$244.8K 24h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
96%YESTrust 69
Polymarket$25.1K 24h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 99
Polymarket$125.6K 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
19%YESTrust 88
Polymarket$201.1K 24h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
81%YESTrust 100
Polymarket$511K 24h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0%YESTrust 100
Polymarket$266.8K 24h