Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
852 mana
Total volume
993.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will we get a Trailer 4 for GTA VI?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 8:02 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 79.6% (up from 55.9% 24 hours earlier). It had 852 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
79.6%
+23.7 percentage points
over 24 hours55.9% → 79.6%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
91%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
12
over 45 days
Largest order
500 mana
993.4 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 45 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$993.4 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 23.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (55.9% → 79.6%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 19, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 8:12 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 91% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (5 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next498 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Thin-liquidity spike2%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~3h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+23.77D+23.7
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