Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
127 mana
Total volume
127 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? [Polymarket]
As of Oct 24, 2026, 10:33 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 19.2% (down from 23.6% 24 hours earlier). It had 127 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
19.2%
−4.4 percentage points
over 24 hours23.6% → 19.2%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 4.4 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
63%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
7
over 2h
Largest order
80 mana
127 mana traded across these 7 trades (last 2h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$127 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 4.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (23.6% → 19.2%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 24, 10:39 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
TrendingLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Trending
A sustained one-directional drift. This can be a genuine trend or crowd herding; watch whether liquidity and breadth confirm the move.
- Directional drift sustained across 1h / 6h / 24h windows
- Executed flow sell-heavy (89%)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
3Low
Where the price path tends to go next508 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-4.46H-4.424H-4.47D-4.4
Cross-venue check
13.9 pts apartMatch: normalized event signature (strong match)
Polymarket prices this same question at 5% vs Manifold at 19%. That is a meaningful gap — when venues disagree, treat any single number with caution rather than as a settled probability.
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