Will Utah Amendment B (60% vote for tax-increasing initiatives) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Utah Amendment B (Shall the Utah Constitution be amended to require that citizen-proposed laws that increase taxes compared to existing law be approved by at least 60% of voters, instead of a simple majority?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the amendment (Utah Const. art. XXIII §1: 'a majority of the electors voting thereon') Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Tax-increasing statewide initiatives would need at least 60% approval. NO: Tax-related initiatives continue to need a simple majority. Results: resolves on the result certified by Utah Lieutenant Governor / State Board of Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://vote.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-Voter-Information-Pamphlet.pdf