Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
108 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
250 mana
Total volume
585.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
🏛️ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? 🏛️
As of Oct 28, 2026, 10:08 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 4.7% (down from 16.3% 24 hours earlier). It had 250 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 108 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
4.7%
−11.6 percentage points
over 24 hours16.3% → 4.7%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (11.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
43%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
21
Trades
27
over 128 days
Largest order
250 mana
576.4 mana traded across these 27 trades (last 128 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$576.4 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, a federal statute is enacted that meaningfully limits or overrides states’ ability to regulate AI systems. NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, a federal statute is enacted that meaningfully limits or overrides states’ ability to regulate AI systems. NO otherwise. Definition of “substantially preempts” Counts as YES if the law does at least one of the following: Bans or freezes state AI regulation for any meaningful period (e.g., moratorium) Establishes federal AI rules that explicitly override conflicting state laws Prohibits states from regulating core AI development, training, deployment, or model requirements Minor or narrow preemption (affecting only small, technical, or unrelated areas) does not count. Sources of Truth: The resolution will be determined using official government legislative databases, such as Congress.gov, or major reputable national news outlets reporting on the signing of federal legislation. If anything is wrong or needs clarification, feel free to put your concern in the comments :) Note: I will restrain my trading in this market to 100 mana at max. I know the liquidity is low... I'm broke, but you can change that! I will also add more liquidity (or you can, I think) if this market gets more participation.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 11.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (16.3% → 4.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 28, 10:12 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 11.6 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 21 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
7Low
Where the price path tends to go next464 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~6h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-11.624H-11.67D-11.6