Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
50 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Google release a model officially named "Gemini 4 Flash" by November 13, 2026?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 3:11 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 30.7% (down from 35.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
30.7%
−4.3 percentage points
over 24 hours35.0% → 30.7%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
60%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
3
Trades
3
over 13h
Largest order
30 mana
50 mana traded across these 3 trades (last 13h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$50 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 13, 2026 11:59 PM Pacific, Google makes a model officially named "Gemini 4 Flash" available to the public: in the Gemini app, Google AI Studio, the Gemini API, or Vertex AI. What counts: Any variant whose official name contains "Gemini 4 Flash": Preview, Experimental, Live, Image, Thinking and so on.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 13, 2026 11:59 PM Pacific, Google makes a model officially named "Gemini 4 Flash" available to the public: in the Gemini app, Google AI Studio, the Gemini API, or Vertex AI. What counts: Any variant whose official name contains "Gemini 4 Flash": Preview, Experimental, Live, Image, Thinking and so on. A public preview counts, and so does a paid-tier-only release. Evidence: an official Google post (blog.google, developers.googleblog.com, cloud.google.com/blog) or the Gemini API changelog (ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/changelog) naming the model as available. What does NOT count: Gemini 4 Flash-Lite (a separate tier). Gemini 4 Argon or any Pro tier. A smaller Gemini 4 model released under a different name (for example another element name like "Argon"), unless Google's own page also calls it "Gemini 4 Flash". Access limited to a closed or trusted-tester program. The model must be usable by ordinary paying or free users or developers. Announcements without availability, leaks, and model IDs spotted in code. Context: Gemini 4 Argon was announced Sept 30 and went generally available Oct 13, 2026. The newest Flash is Gemini 3.8 Flash (Sept 2, 2026). Google hasn't announced a date or a name for a smaller Gemini 4 model. I (the creator) will not trade in this market.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 4.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (35.0% → 30.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 14, 2026 at 2:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 3:16 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next431 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~4h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-4.37D-4.3